Oscars 2020

[CaptHayfever]

Nominations were announced the other day, complete with printable list so you can check your predictions during the ceremony!

Predictions...

Spoiler.

Picture: I can narrow it down to 4; it'll be 1917 (because war movie), Little Women (to apologize to Gerwig for snubbing her on Director), Irishman (to wank Scorsese), or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (to wank Tarantino).
Director: It won't be Phillips; I can't decide between the other 4.
Actor: Phoenix, & it'll be the only thing Joker wins.
Actress: Erivo, to save face.
Supporting Actor: Hanks or Hopkins; Pesci & Pacino will split their votes.
Supporting Actress: Pugh (but for Midsommer) or Johansson (to appease the Marvel crowd).
Animated Feature: This one is hard. Laika vs Pixar will dominate the conversation, but HTTYD or Klaus should win.
Animated Short: n/a
Documentary Feature: n/a
Documentary Short: St. Louis Superman
Live-Action Short: n/a
International: Parasite
Original Screenplay: This one is totally up for grabs.
Adapted Screenplay: Logan had a much better script than Joker & it didn't win, so Joker better not. Also not Two Popes.
Score: Star Wars, because John Williams is 87 years old & the next film on his schedule won't be out for another year & a half (if it even gets made; it's Indiana Jones 5).
Song: Disney is splitting its vote, so Elton John.
Cinematography: Again, it'll be Scorsese, Tarantino, or Mendes.
Film Editing: n/a
Visual Effects: Endgame unless they give Feige the Thalberg Award. But for the love of all that is good in this world, NOT Irishman.
Sound Editing & Sound Mixing: Somehow Rocketman got snubbed here, so 1917 could take both.
Production Design: It won't be Parasite, but beyond that I can't tell.
Costume: Jojo Rabbit or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
Makeup & Hair: n/a

And remember, "I'm-a Luigi, number one!"

[Calamity Panfan]

Picture: Uncut Gems
Director: Josh and Benny Safdie, Uncut Gems
Actor: Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
Actress: Julia Fox, Uncut Gems
Supporting Actor: Kevin Garnett, Uncut Gems or Eric Bogosian, Uncut Gems
Supporting Actress: Idina Menzel, Uncut Gems
Original Screenplay: Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie & Benny Safdie, Uncut Gems
Score: Daniel Loaptin, Uncut Gems
Cinematography: Darius Khondji, Uncut Gems

REAL Predictions:

Spoiler.

Best Picture: 1917
Director: Scorsese
Actor: Phoenix
Actress: Johansson
Supporting Actor: Hanks
Supporting Actress: Pugh
Animated Film: Toy Story 4
International Film: Parasite
Cinematography: 1917
Costume Design: Little Women
Editing: The Irishman
Makeup/Hair: Bombshell
Score: Star Wars
Song: Rocketman
Production Design: 1917
Sound Editing: Ford v Ferrari
Sound Mixing: Ad Astra
Visual Effects: Endgame
Adapted Screenplay: The Irishman
Original Screenplay: Marriage Story

I know next to nothing about documentaries and shorts (though I saw "Hair Love" and it was very cute) so I won't even try to guess.

For what I personally want to see win, I absolutely loved The Irishman and Once Upon a Time so I wouldn't be mad at either of those winning Best Picture and any of the writing/technical categories they're nominated for (except The Irishman winning for visual effects; that was the film's one flaw). I'm seeing Little Women tomorrow and hopefully Parasite soon and I imagine I'll like those enough as well. Joker has no chance at winning Best Picture but if it somehow did I'd be mad at that.

Sandler should've been nominated for Best Actor, and De Niro probably as well. Phoenix will win and it'll be deserved but he'd maybe be my 5th choice on the entire year after those two, DiCaprio and Driver. Unless Ronan blows me away when I see Little Women (which she very well could) I'm pulling for ScarJo there. Both supporting categories I think I'm good with anybody winning because those are both really strong fields. I think I'd prefer Pacino (who had the second-best performance of anybody in film this year after Sandler) and Bates slightly.

As for snubs outside of Uncut Gems anger (should've had nominations for Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay and Score AT LEAST), I would've liked to see Lupita Nyong'o for Us in Best Actress and Eddie Murphy for Dolemite Is My Name in Best Actor. It's hard to get a concert film nominated for anything but I'd have liked to see Beyonce: Homecoming somehow get acknowledged because it's probably the best concert film since Stop Making Sense.

[Apollo the Just]

Animated Feature is tough for me because this is the first time I think one of the HTTYD movies has a shot at winning, but I'm not sure if I really think it should. Its animation IS really gorgeous, but it is kind of an awkward resolution to the movie trilogy because I think it made the unfortunate decision of trying to parallel the book series ending even though the movies were going in a vastly different direction; so as a standalone movie it is kind of solidly "fine". To be fair, I don't think the Animated Feature category itself even knows whether it is specifically about the animation or the entire feature including narrative merit etc, so.

Honestly I think Abominable was overall a better animated feature than HTTYD 3 was, not that it really matters as it wasn't nominated and wouldn't have won.

anyway this concludes my takes on the only category i kind of care about, except not really because if toy story **** 3 can win over httyd 1 the category means **** all

edit: actually now that i remembered toy story 4 has the nomination as well i want httyd to win because it is what should have happened 8 years ago. that said. i really hope laika or klaus gets it as both are so much more fresh in the current climate of animation. although i will be honest this year's laika release was not as appealing to me as their last several aesthetically, it is still more interesting than toy story **** 4.

[Booyakasha]

Geez. I haven't seen any of the nominees at all this year.

[I REALLY HATE POKEMON!]

Animated Feature is tough for me because this is the first time I think one of the HTTYD movies has a shot at winning, but I'm not sure if I really think it should. Its animation IS really gorgeous, but it is kind of an awkward resolution to the movie trilogy because I think it made the unfortunate decision of trying to parallel the book series ending even though the movies were going in a vastly different direction; so as a standalone movie it is kind of solidly "fine". To be fair, I don't think the Animated Feature category itself even knows whether it is specifically about the animation or the entire feature including narrative merit etc, so.

Honestly I think Abominable was overall a better animated feature than HTTYD 3 was, not that it really matters as it wasn't nominated and wouldn't have won.

anyway this concludes my takes on the only category i kind of care about, except not really because if toy story **** 3 can win over httyd 1 the category means **** all

edit: actually now that i remembered toy story 4 has the nomination as well i want httyd to win because it is what should have happened 8 years ago. that said. i really hope laika or klaus gets it as both are so much more fresh in the current climate of animation. although i will be honest this year's laika release was not as appealing to me as their last several aesthetically, it is still more interesting than toy story **** 4.

I know I'm far from the target audience now, but Toy Story 3 was terrible and Toy Story 4 seems even worse. I don't know how those can win anything. I have fond memories of the original two though, which might partially just be nostalgia but idk.

[CaptHayfever]

Yeah, I definitely would've pegged Abominable over Toy Story 4, especially because Pixar literally didn't want to even make Toy Story 4.

And remember, "I'm-a Luigi, number one!"

[Calamity Panfan]

Toy Story 4 got significantly better reviews than Abominable and has the Pixar Pedigree, so I'm not surprised.

[Apollo the Just]

i just watched cats again and it deserves to win every category. that concludes my take

[Calamity Panfan]

the jellicle choice is the only award that matters

[CaptHayfever]

I didn't do great with my predictions: got 9 out of 18 out of 24.
Irishman got shut out, nice.
No Thalberg, bummer.

So what was up with "Lose Yourself"?

And remember, "I'm-a Luigi, number one!"

[Calamity Panfan]

Pitt won over Pesci/Pacino but that category was loaded so I'm not mad. Was hoping to see some love for The Irishman since it remains a tie for my favorite movie of last year with Uncut Gems

I still haven't seen 1917 but from everything I've heard it's a pretty good war movie that coasts on Deakins' cinematography, so even though I also haven't seen Parasite (just bought a ticket for Tuesday) I'm glad it went to something unique. Plus Bong Joon-ho rules.

Thought Williams was gonna win for Score since it might be one of his last chances but Joker did have a pretty good score, and I'm pretty sure Guðnadóttir is the first Oscar winner to play on a Sunn O))) record.

Ceremony was alright. Despite my distaste for Wilson and Corden the Cats bit got a chuckle out of me. Should've brought in Skimbleshanks though.

The "Lose Yourself" performance was utterly bizarre and as soon as it started I couldn't stop laughing.

Also the opening number having costumes from notable snubs like Dolemite Is My Name, Midsommar and Us was cool.

Phoenix's speech was bizarre (though I teared up when he talked about River). Zellweger's speech was a snooze. Bong Joon-ho's speeches were great.

[Apollo the Just]

hahahahahahahahahaha holy **** did toy story 4 really win best animated feature. incredible

im not mad httyd didnt win because the only httyd that really absolutely deserved it was robbed 8 years ago, but i do think it's hilarious that cash grab sequels no one asked for from a series that has outlasted its charm from the only studio that ever wins despite making NO effort to be groundbreaking with animation anymore, are academy award winning. like honestly it isn't even like giving it to Claus would have been controversial, the movie did some incredible work with animating and toy story 4 was hardly a movie anyone was really talking about. at least toy story 3 capitalized so hard on well-timed nostalgia that it convinced everyone it was a good movie

--

edit: i just really wish this category was more than "which popular animated flick did me and my kids enjoy most this year". like movies that are enjoyable and good are chill!! not every single movie needs to be Artful And Impactful!!!!! but at this point the oscars give literally no **** about artistry in animation whatsoever and it shows. this tells me they only gave it to Spiderverse because they'd be called out on not being woke if they didn't. it's hard to be excited for spiderverse when so many of the other years' wins make the award feel meaningless. i mean not to take away from it, the movie absolutely deserved it, but so did, yknow, Kubo, Claus.....

i would legitimately be less salty if frozen 2 had been nominated and won because even if it's also very disney/pixar standard, at least that was a more meaningful sequel that definitely did go ham visually, even if it's in more of a big budget way than a groundbreaking or interesting way.

abominable had a more compelling aesthetic than either in the intro alone but i digress :^)

edit edit: on the subject of frozen, remember how rise of the guardians had more realistic looking ice literally a year before frozen came out? not to mention more interesting designs but y'know. frozen's ice looked like glass by comparison. and the academy slept on it... remember that? i remember. i will never forget